Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhongtong Bus Holding Co., Ltd. (000957.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.32 - $4.64$3.98
Multi-Stage$7.11 - $7.86$7.48
Blended Fair Value$5.73
Current Price$10.99
Upside-47.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-31.06%-4.25%0.050.050.090.130.240.310.560.120.400.16
YoY Growth---6.00%-41.94%-30.83%-45.51%-24.29%-43.96%382.91%-71.05%149.71%112.54%
Dividend Yield--0.43%0.60%0.83%2.64%3.73%4.32%7.11%1.23%2.52%1.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)330.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)312.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.2041.3724.82
Cash Retained (M)312.33312.33312.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.20-41.37-24.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)246.13270.96287.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)589.67589.67589.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate-5.19%-4.19%-3.19%
Fair Value$3.32$3.98$4.64
Upside / Downside-69.81%-63.82%-57.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)330.98317.13303.86291.14278.95267.28275.30
Payout Ratio5.64%22.51%39.38%56.25%73.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.6571.38119.66163.78203.99240.55254.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate-5.19%-4.19%-3.19%
Year 1 PV (M)65.6266.3167.00
Year 2 PV (M)101.12103.26105.43
Year 3 PV (M)127.22131.29135.44
Year 4 PV (M)145.66151.91158.35
Year 5 PV (M)157.90166.41175.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,595.953,789.623,991.55
Equity Value (M)4,193.474,408.794,633.04
Shares Outstanding (M)589.67589.67589.67
Fair Value$7.11$7.48$7.86
Upside / Downside-35.29%-31.97%-28.51%

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