Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Beijing Centergate Technologies (holding) Co., Ltd. (000931.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.53 - $0.78$0.65
Multi-Stage$1.43 - $1.58$1.51
Blended Fair Value$1.08
Current Price$5.27
Upside-79.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.80%-8.21%0.040.040.050.050.080.070.080.150.090.11
YoY Growth---12.11%-19.15%12.78%-36.90%5.53%-12.38%-45.55%71.60%-22.16%24.82%
Dividend Yield--0.80%0.93%0.86%0.62%1.13%0.84%0.81%2.33%0.98%1.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.296.433.86
Cash Retained (M)33.8833.8833.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.29-6.43-3.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.5927.4530.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)753.51753.51753.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.15%6.15%6.15%
Growth Rate-3.79%-2.79%-1.79%
Fair Value$0.53$0.65$0.78
Upside / Downside-89.97%-87.67%-85.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.4550.0248.6247.2645.9444.6646.00
Payout Ratio34.16%45.33%56.50%67.66%78.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.5822.6727.4731.9836.2240.1942.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.15%6.15%6.15%
Growth Rate-3.79%-2.79%-1.79%
Year 1 PV (M)21.1421.3621.58
Year 2 PV (M)23.8824.3824.88
Year 3 PV (M)25.9226.7427.57
Year 4 PV (M)27.3728.5329.72
Year 5 PV (M)28.3329.8331.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)952.951,003.511,056.20
Equity Value (M)1,079.591,134.351,191.35
Shares Outstanding (M)753.51753.51753.51
Fair Value$1.43$1.51$1.58
Upside / Downside-72.81%-71.43%-70.00%

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