Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Harbin Electric Corporation Jiamusi Electric Machine CO.,Ltd (000922.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.02 - $77.78$72.89
Multi-Stage$46.73 - $51.28$48.96
Blended Fair Value$60.93
Current Price$12.10
Upside403.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%20.09%0.250.160.120.150.060.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--54.56%35.77%-21.77%140.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.24%1.31%1.04%1.81%0.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)245.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)95.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)150.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.2030.7518.45
Cash Retained (M)150.75150.75150.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.20-30.75-18.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)101.55120.00132.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)628.91628.91628.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$66.02$72.89$77.78
Upside / Downside445.63%502.44%542.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)245.98261.97279.00297.13316.44337.01347.12
Payout Ratio38.72%48.97%59.23%69.49%79.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)95.23128.29165.25206.47252.34303.31321.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)125.19126.38127.57
Year 2 PV (M)157.36160.36163.39
Year 3 PV (M)191.87197.37202.99
Year 4 PV (M)228.84237.64246.69
Year 5 PV (M)268.41281.38294.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,414.6629,787.1031,212.06
Equity Value (M)29,386.3330,790.2332,247.53
Shares Outstanding (M)628.91628.91628.91
Fair Value$46.73$48.96$51.28
Upside / Downside286.16%304.61%323.76%

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