Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Zhenyuan Share Co., Ltd. (000705.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.44 - $27.59$25.85
Multi-Stage$5.68 - $6.23$5.95
Blended Fair Value$15.90
Current Price$9.92
Upside60.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.97%24.93%0.070.060.060.070.060.030.000.020.030.00
YoY Growth--19.24%-2.23%-13.42%11.24%103.51%584.71%-81.78%-26.22%4,281.72%-89.95%
Dividend Yield--0.90%0.75%0.76%0.77%0.88%0.44%0.06%0.31%0.28%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.445.903.54
Cash Retained (M)22.2722.2722.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.44-5.90-3.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.8216.3718.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)335.76335.76335.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate5.43%5.43%5.43%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Fair Value$8.44$25.85$27.59
Upside / Downside-14.92%160.60%178.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.2249.6052.1054.7257.4860.3862.19
Payout Ratio52.84%60.27%67.71%75.14%82.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.9529.9035.2741.1247.4654.3457.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.43%5.43%5.43%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Year 1 PV (M)28.0928.3628.63
Year 2 PV (M)31.1431.7432.34
Year 3 PV (M)34.1035.0936.10
Year 4 PV (M)36.9838.4239.90
Year 5 PV (M)39.7841.7243.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,736.201,821.261,909.62
Equity Value (M)1,906.271,996.592,090.34
Shares Outstanding (M)335.76335.76335.76
Fair Value$5.68$5.95$6.23
Upside / Downside-42.77%-40.06%-37.24%

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