Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited (000625.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.84 - $27.25$18.23
Multi-Stage$9.15 - $10.01$9.57
Blended Fair Value$13.90
Current Price$12.23
Upside13.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS93.70%17.99%0.350.240.180.170.000.010.220.320.310.13
YoY Growth--44.93%31.98%5.81%3,648.36%-64.05%-94.17%-32.21%2.87%142.46%94.45%
Dividend Yield--2.66%1.35%1.52%1.97%0.06%0.22%4.61%5.22%3.61%1.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,796.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,755.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,359.35849.59509.75
Cash Retained (M)6,755.986,755.986,755.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,359.35-849.59-509.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,396.635,906.396,246.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,943.369,943.369,943.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.590.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.590.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.84$18.23$27.25
Upside / Downside4.96%49.05%122.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,796.737,238.527,709.028,210.118,743.779,312.119,591.48
Payout Ratio0.60%18.48%36.36%54.24%72.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.751,337.652,802.984,453.156,306.008,380.908,872.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,204.691,216.111,227.53
Year 2 PV (M)2,273.442,316.752,360.46
Year 3 PV (M)3,252.853,346.223,441.37
Year 4 PV (M)4,148.424,307.954,472.05
Year 5 PV (M)4,965.375,205.195,454.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)75,150.9678,780.7882,549.52
Equity Value (M)90,995.7295,173.0199,505.13
Shares Outstanding (M)9,943.369,943.369,943.36
Fair Value$9.15$9.57$10.01
Upside / Downside-25.17%-21.74%-18.17%

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