Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd. (000568.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$958.92 - $1,711.42$1,603.85
Multi-Stage$268.43 - $294.06$281.01
Blended Fair Value$942.43
Current Price$131.92
Upside614.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.13%16.43%5.624.443.352.161.651.631.300.940.800.83
YoY Growth--26.40%32.88%55.09%31.02%1.18%25.04%37.78%18.09%-3.20%-32.69%
Dividend Yield--4.33%2.32%1.31%1.16%0.73%2.21%1.93%1.66%1.90%3.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,642.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,188.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,454.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,528.471,580.29948.18
Cash Retained (M)10,454.0310,454.0310,454.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,528.47-1,580.29-948.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,925.568,873.749,505.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,469.101,469.101,469.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.396.046.47
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.396.046.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.887.537.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$958.92$1,603.85$1,711.42
Upside / Downside626.89%1,115.78%1,197.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,642.3413,464.0914,339.2615,271.3116,263.9417,321.1017,840.73
Payout Ratio17.31%31.85%46.39%60.92%75.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,188.314,287.986,651.369,303.8612,273.0815,588.9916,502.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,997.574,035.464,073.35
Year 2 PV (M)5,780.935,891.046,002.18
Year 3 PV (M)7,538.657,755.067,975.57
Year 4 PV (M)9,271.039,627.569,994.29
Year 5 PV (M)10,978.3211,508.5812,059.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)356,778.36374,010.89391,902.95
Equity Value (M)394,344.86412,828.59432,007.48
Shares Outstanding (M)1,469.101,469.101,469.10
Fair Value$268.43$281.01$294.06
Upside / Downside103.48%113.01%122.91%

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