Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology Innovation Co.,Ltd.Guangzhou (000523.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.77 - $1.00$0.89
Multi-Stage$1.76 - $1.97$1.86
Blended Fair Value$1.38
Current Price$3.16
Upside-56.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-43.28%-13.88%0.000.010.020.060.080.070.040.020.020.03
YoY Growth---49.22%-46.69%-74.78%-27.96%19.37%55.89%87.46%-1.93%-9.71%47.82%
Dividend Yield--0.12%0.25%0.45%1.77%2.82%1.05%0.77%0.38%0.26%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)508.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)500.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)101.6063.5038.10
Cash Retained (M)500.65500.65500.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-101.60-63.50-38.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)399.04437.15462.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,832.861,832.861,832.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate8.19%8.19%8.19%
Growth Rate-15.88%-14.88%-13.88%
Fair Value$0.77$0.89$1.00
Upside / Downside-75.47%-71.68%-68.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)508.02432.45368.12313.36266.75227.07233.88
Payout Ratio1.45%19.16%36.87%54.58%72.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.3882.86135.73171.04192.83204.36216.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.19%8.19%8.19%
Growth Rate-15.88%-14.88%-13.88%
Year 1 PV (M)75.6976.5977.49
Year 2 PV (M)113.24115.95118.69
Year 3 PV (M)130.34135.04139.86
Year 4 PV (M)134.23140.72147.45
Year 5 PV (M)129.93137.84146.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,648.272,809.462,978.40
Equity Value (M)3,231.713,415.613,608.03
Shares Outstanding (M)1,832.861,832.861,832.86
Fair Value$1.76$1.86$1.97
Upside / Downside-44.20%-41.03%-37.71%

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