Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen SEG Co.,Ltd (000058.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.75 - $1.18$0.95
Multi-Stage$1.05 - $1.15$1.10
Blended Fair Value$1.02
Current Price$9.81
Upside-89.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.85%21.34%0.060.050.050.070.110.130.130.120.130.03
YoY Growth--26.00%-7.97%-25.56%-38.60%-15.57%1.15%9.14%-5.50%377.05%210.71%
Dividend Yield--0.72%0.67%0.77%1.15%1.80%2.12%1.74%1.79%1.25%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.4611.546.92
Cash Retained (M)51.2651.2651.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.46-11.54-6.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.8039.7244.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,230.741,230.741,230.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Fair Value$0.75$0.95$1.18
Upside / Downside-92.33%-90.32%-87.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.3293.9595.6197.3099.02100.77103.79
Payout Ratio44.48%53.58%62.69%71.79%80.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.0650.3459.9369.8580.1090.6996.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Year 1 PV (M)45.8146.2746.72
Year 2 PV (M)49.6450.6351.63
Year 3 PV (M)52.6554.2455.85
Year 4 PV (M)54.9557.1659.44
Year 5 PV (M)56.6259.4862.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,033.251,085.551,139.94
Equity Value (M)1,292.921,353.331,416.05
Shares Outstanding (M)1,230.741,230.741,230.74
Fair Value$1.05$1.10$1.15
Upside / Downside-89.29%-88.79%-88.27%

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