Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wagners Holding Company Limited (WGN.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.27 - $33.55$16.40
Multi-Stage$6.36 - $6.99$6.67
Blended Fair Value$11.54
Current Price$2.29
Upside403.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.020.000.000.000.000.000.050.160.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-69.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.78%3.72%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.604.122.47
Cash Retained (M)28.3128.3128.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.60-4.12-2.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.7124.1825.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)192.11192.11192.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate5.53%5.53%5.53%
Growth Rate3.57%4.57%5.57%
Fair Value$7.27$16.40$33.55
Upside / Downside217.39%616.31%1,364.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.0034.5136.0937.7439.4641.2742.51
Payout Ratio14.21%29.37%44.53%59.69%74.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.6910.1316.0722.5229.5437.1439.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.53%5.53%5.53%
Growth Rate3.57%4.57%5.57%
Year 1 PV (M)9.519.609.70
Year 2 PV (M)14.1514.4314.70
Year 3 PV (M)18.6219.1619.72
Year 4 PV (M)22.9123.8124.74
Year 5 PV (M)27.0428.3729.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,130.361,185.991,243.79
Equity Value (M)1,222.601,281.371,342.40
Shares Outstanding (M)192.11192.11192.11
Fair Value$6.36$6.67$6.99
Upside / Downside177.90%191.26%205.13%

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