Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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WEG S.A. (WEGE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$125.48 - $307.22$287.91
Multi-Stage$45.10 - $49.35$47.19
Blended Fair Value$167.55
Current Price$36.59
Upside357.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.93%20.37%0.700.550.450.390.210.160.140.130.130.12
YoY Growth--27.12%22.31%13.89%88.05%29.43%12.74%10.11%4.13%1.31%13.14%
Dividend Yield--1.54%1.43%1.07%1.08%0.53%0.90%1.46%1.37%1.67%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,482.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,167.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,314.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,296.55810.34486.21
Cash Retained (M)3,314.943,314.943,314.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,296.55-810.34-486.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,018.392,504.602,828.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,196.474,196.474,196.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.600.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.600.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.351.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$125.48$287.91$307.22
Upside / Downside242.93%686.87%739.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,482.756,904.137,352.907,830.848,339.848,881.939,148.39
Payout Ratio48.87%57.09%65.32%73.55%81.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,167.813,941.724,802.855,759.286,819.747,993.748,462.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,665.053,699.793,734.53
Year 2 PV (M)4,152.284,231.374,311.21
Year 3 PV (M)4,629.674,762.574,897.99
Year 4 PV (M)5,097.345,293.375,495.00
Year 5 PV (M)5,555.465,823.796,102.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)166,175.59174,201.93182,535.46
Equity Value (M)189,275.38198,012.82207,076.57
Shares Outstanding (M)4,196.474,196.474,196.47
Fair Value$45.10$47.19$49.35
Upside / Downside23.27%28.96%34.86%

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