Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Totvs S.a. (TOTS3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.37 - $269.18$92.61
Multi-Stage$28.07 - $30.68$29.35
Blended Fair Value$60.98
Current Price$45.93
Upside32.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.68%5.32%0.440.690.230.240.180.080.090.130.240.29
YoY Growth---35.62%194.33%-2.50%32.71%116.90%-3.08%-32.68%-45.89%-18.88%10.28%
Dividend Yield--1.33%2.49%0.86%0.69%0.66%0.57%0.70%1.46%2.80%3.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)811.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)298.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)512.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)162.33101.4660.88
Cash Retained (M)512.99512.99512.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-162.33-101.46-60.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)350.65411.53452.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)599.67599.67599.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.690.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.690.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.37$92.61$269.18
Upside / Downside5.30%101.64%486.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)811.67864.43920.62980.461,044.191,112.061,145.42
Payout Ratio36.80%47.44%58.08%68.72%79.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)298.69410.08534.69673.77828.661,000.851,059.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)376.62380.19383.76
Year 2 PV (M)450.99459.58468.25
Year 3 PV (M)521.93536.91552.18
Year 4 PV (M)589.55612.22635.54
Year 5 PV (M)653.95685.54718.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,238.7614,926.4915,640.55
Equity Value (M)16,831.7917,600.9318,398.61
Shares Outstanding (M)599.67599.67599.67
Fair Value$28.07$29.35$30.68
Upside / Downside-38.89%-36.10%-33.20%

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