Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Raia Drogasil S.A. (RADL3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$134.36 - $158.30$148.35
Multi-Stage$31.80 - $34.84$33.29
Blended Fair Value$90.82
Current Price$18.42
Upside393.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.53%27.58%0.280.280.190.160.110.110.100.100.090.07
YoY Growth--1.86%43.76%22.28%39.11%2.10%7.48%1.62%11.42%26.44%192.05%
Dividend Yield--1.48%1.05%0.84%0.71%0.49%0.60%0.88%0.76%0.87%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,340.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)544.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)795.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)268.04167.52100.51
Cash Retained (M)795.84795.84795.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-268.04-167.52-100.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)527.80628.32695.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,683.711,683.711,683.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate5.60%5.60%5.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$134.36$148.35$158.30
Upside / Downside629.42%705.36%759.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,340.181,427.291,520.061,618.861,724.091,836.161,891.24
Payout Ratio40.62%50.49%60.37%70.25%80.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)544.34720.69917.661,137.201,381.401,652.541,749.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.60%5.60%5.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)676.05682.46688.87
Year 2 PV (M)807.51822.89838.42
Year 3 PV (M)938.72965.67993.13
Year 4 PV (M)1,069.681,110.821,153.13
Year 5 PV (M)1,200.391,258.371,318.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,851.2851,210.8153,660.65
Equity Value (M)53,543.6356,051.0258,652.76
Shares Outstanding (M)1,683.711,683.711,683.71
Fair Value$31.80$33.29$34.84
Upside / Downside72.64%80.73%89.12%

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