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Definitive Analysis

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OSB Group Plc (OSB.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - MortgagesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$102.09 - $333.35$312.40
Multi-Stage$44.10 - $48.25$46.14
Blended Fair Value$179.27
Current Price$5.23
Upside3,327.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.65%60.16%0.320.360.340.220.000.090.080.070.060.04
YoY Growth---12.04%7.96%53.52%0.00%-100.00%12.35%22.96%15.88%62.46%1,160.28%
Dividend Yield--7.87%7.80%6.99%3.94%0.00%2.17%2.39%1.67%1.74%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)664.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)261.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)403.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)132.9083.0649.84
Cash Retained (M)403.40403.40403.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-132.90-83.06-49.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)270.50320.34353.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)396.44396.44396.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.810.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.810.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.341.471.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$102.09$312.40$333.35
Upside / Downside1,852.02%5,873.18%6,273.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)664.50707.69753.69802.68854.86910.42937.74
Payout Ratio39.29%49.43%59.58%69.72%79.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)261.10349.84449.02559.61682.68819.38867.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)324.23327.30330.38
Year 2 PV (M)385.68393.03400.44
Year 3 PV (M)445.48458.27471.30
Year 4 PV (M)503.67523.04542.96
Year 5 PV (M)560.28587.34615.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,263.9116,001.1716,766.64
Equity Value (M)17,483.2618,290.1519,127.16
Shares Outstanding (M)396.44396.44396.44
Fair Value$44.10$46.14$48.25
Upside / Downside743.23%782.15%822.52%

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