Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $14.81 - $21.46 | $18.04 |
| Multi-Stage | $40.95 - $45.16 | $43.01 |
| Blended Fair Value | $30.53 | |
| Current Price | $27.00 | |
| Upside | 13.06% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -12.76% | -1.57% | 1.00 | 1.52 | 1.56 | 1.78 | 1.88 | 1.98 | 1.46 | 1.34 | 1.59 | 1.12 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -33.93% | -3.07% | -12.13% | -5.27% | -5.21% | 35.79% | 9.03% | -15.86% | 42.62% | -4.89% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.89% | 7.47% | 5.64% | 6.55% | 8.99% | 12.30% | 5.84% | 6.90% | 7.75% | 6.28% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,005.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,152.71 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 852.29 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 401.00 | 250.63 | 150.38 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 852.29 | 852.29 | 852.29 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -401.00 | -250.63 | -150.38 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 451.29 | 601.67 | 701.92 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 959.03 | 959.03 | 959.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.47 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.47 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.93 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -4.47% | -3.47% | -2.47% |
| Fair Value | $14.81 | $18.04 | $21.46 |
| Upside / Downside | -45.15% | -33.19% | -20.52% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,005.00 | 1,935.43 | 1,868.26 | 1,803.43 | 1,740.85 | 1,680.45 | 1,730.86 |
| Payout Ratio | 57.49% | 63.99% | 70.50% | 77.00% | 83.50% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,152.71 | 1,238.54 | 1,317.03 | 1,388.59 | 1,453.58 | 1,512.40 | 1,601.04 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -4.47% | -3.47% | -2.47% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,152.87 | 1,164.94 | 1,177.01 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,141.13 | 1,165.14 | 1,189.41 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,119.90 | 1,155.43 | 1,191.72 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,091.22 | 1,137.64 | 1,185.52 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,056.84 | 1,113.32 | 1,172.20 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 33,713.06 | 35,514.92 | 37,393.01 |
| Equity Value (M) | 39,275.02 | 41,251.40 | 43,308.86 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 959.03 | 959.03 | 959.03 |
| Fair Value | $40.95 | $43.01 | $45.16 |
| Upside / Downside | 51.68% | 59.31% | 67.26% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBCP | Home Bancorp, Inc. | 1.92% | $1.10 | 19.54% |
| SLM | SLM Corporation | 1.92% | $0.53 | 17.47% |
| UVE | Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 14.30% |
| WAL | Western Alliance Bancorporation | 1.92% | $1.64 | 20.05% |
| 0JZ1.L | Masco Corporation | 1.91% | $1.23 | 31.44% |
| 0L8B.L | Southern Copper Corporation | 1.91% | $2.80 | 60.30% |
| BKR | Baker Hughes Company | 1.91% | $0.90 | 30.82% |
| BPAC | Bullpen Parlay Acquisition Company | 1.91% | $0.20 | 36.09% |
| ELV | Elevance Health Inc. | 1.91% | $6.75 | 27.56% |
| NGVC | Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. | 1.91% | $0.47 | 23.70% |
| SYBT | Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc. | 1.91% | $1.25 | 27.22% |
| 0JVQ.L | Lowe's Companies, Inc. | 1.90% | $4.67 | 38.55% |
| ATERX | AB Sustainable Global Thematic Fund Class R | 1.90% | $2.84 | 36.57% |
| BLL | Ball Corporation | 1.90% | $1.32 | 9.47% |
| EAI | Entergy Arkansas, Inc. 1M BD 4.875%66 | 1.90% | $0.40 | 9.71% |
| MMC | Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | 1.90% | $3.47 | 41.48% |
| THO | Thor Industries, Inc. | 1.90% | $2.00 | 37.63% |
| TRGP | Targa Resources Corp. | 1.90% | $3.55 | 46.50% |
| TTC | The Toro Company | 1.90% | $1.52 | 45.26% |
| 0K8M.L | Norfolk Southern Corporation | 1.89% | $5.42 | 41.12% |
| FDX | FedEx Corporation | 1.89% | $5.54 | 32.63% |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | 1.87% | $3.81 | 12.13% |
| BERY | Berry Global Group, Inc. | 1.87% | $1.26 | 24.23% |
| NHC | National HealthCare Corporation | 1.87% | $2.44 | 37.72% |
| PRDO | Perdoceo Education Corporation | 1.87% | $0.54 | 23.03% |
| ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.86% | $2.31 | 28.93% |
| TNET | TriNet Group, Inc. | 1.86% | $1.06 | 38.35% |
| BTMD | biote Corp. | 1.85% | $0.05 | 5.82% |
| WDFC | WD-40 Company | 1.85% | $3.65 | 54.36% |
| AMTB | Amerant Bancorp Inc. | 1.84% | $0.36 | 22.80% |
| BNH | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.625% | 1.84% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MGRC | McGrath RentCorp | 1.84% | $1.93 | 32.75% |
| NATI | National Instruments Corporation | 1.84% | $1.10 | 82.38% |
| OTIS | Otis Worldwide Corporation | 1.84% | $1.63 | 47.44% |
| WS | Worthington Steel, Inc. | 1.84% | $0.65 | 26.98% |
| KBH | KB Home | 1.83% | $1.05 | 13.68% |
| WRB | W. R. Berkley Corporation | 1.83% | $1.27 | 26.69% |
| PIPR | Piper Sandler Companies | 1.82% | $6.36 | 47.91% |
| SFBS | ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. | 1.82% | $1.30 | 27.90% |
| YUM | Yum! Brands, Inc. | 1.82% | $2.73 | 54.40% |
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands Corp. | 1.81% | $1.18 | 51.99% |
| HNVR | Hanover Bancorp, Inc. | 1.80% | $0.41 | 26.32% |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply Company | 1.79% | $0.91 | 43.76% |
| CLI | Mack-Cali Realty Corporation | 1.78% | $0.33 | 21.71% |
| RRR | Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | 1.78% | $1.12 | 60.48% |
| SBR | Sabine Royalty Trust | 1.78% | $1.25 | 23.02% |
| TMUS | T-Mobile US, Inc. | 1.78% | $3.55 | 33.70% |
| BWFG | Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. | 1.77% | $0.80 | 21.59% |
| DGX | Quest Diagnostics Incorporated | 1.77% | $3.07 | 35.81% |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 1.77% | $5.75 | 27.69% |