Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Map Aktif Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$365.05 - $530.21$445.12
Multi-Stage$597.87 - $657.96$627.33
Blended Fair Value$536.22
Current Price$540.00
Upside-0.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%5.004.000.000.000.000.000.007.376.350.00
YoY Growth--25.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%16.04%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.76%0.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.34%2.02%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,414,401.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)114,016.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,300,385.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)282,880.20176,800.13106,080.08
Cash Retained (M)1,300,385.001,300,385.001,300,385.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-282,880.20-176,800.13-106,080.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,017,504.801,123,584.881,194,304.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28,504.0028,504.0028,504.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share35.7039.4241.90
LTM Dividend per Share4.004.004.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share35.7039.4241.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend39.7043.4245.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$365.05$445.12$530.21
Upside / Downside-32.40%-17.57%-1.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,414,401.001,400,256.991,386,254.421,372,391.881,358,667.961,345,081.281,385,433.72
Payout Ratio8.06%24.45%40.84%57.22%73.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)114,016.00342,346.93566,099.84785,343.461,000,145.591,210,573.151,281,526.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)311,889.14315,071.68318,254.23
Year 2 PV (M)469,851.55479,489.28489,224.85
Year 3 PV (M)593,828.56612,193.11630,932.43
Year 4 PV (M)688,967.11717,521.57746,954.56
Year 5 PV (M)759,731.47799,292.45840,484.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,217,484.7314,957,822.1515,728,684.17
Equity Value (M)17,041,752.5517,881,390.2418,754,534.80
Shares Outstanding (M)28,504.0028,504.0028,504.00
Fair Value$597.87$627.33$657.96
Upside / Downside10.72%16.17%21.84%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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