Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $9.66 - $12.96 | $11.36 |
| Multi-Stage | $19.83 - $21.83 | $20.81 |
| Blended Fair Value | $16.09 | |
| Current Price | $53.79 | |
| Upside | -70.09% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -24.26% | -13.04% | 0.83 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 3.34 | 3.32 | 3.27 | 4.13 | 3.82 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 93.44% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -74.52% | 0.64% | 1.77% | -20.96% | 8.02% | 13.41% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.16% | 0.81% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.40% | 7.87% | 5.25% | 4.54% | 7.24% | 7.40% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,556.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 809.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 747.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 311.20 | 194.50 | 116.70 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 747.00 | 747.00 | 747.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -311.20 | -194.50 | -116.70 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 435.80 | 552.50 | 630.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 707.75 | 707.75 | 707.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.62 | 0.78 | 0.89 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.62 | 0.78 | 0.89 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.76 | 1.92 | 2.03 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -7.70% | -6.70% | -5.70% |
| Fair Value | $9.66 | $11.36 | $12.96 |
| Upside / Downside | -82.04% | -78.88% | -75.91% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,556.00 | 1,451.71 | 1,354.42 | 1,263.64 | 1,178.95 | 1,099.93 | 1,132.93 |
| Payout Ratio | 51.99% | 59.59% | 67.20% | 74.80% | 82.40% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 809.00 | 865.13 | 910.11 | 945.16 | 971.44 | 989.94 | 1,047.96 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -7.70% | -6.70% | -5.70% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 784.49 | 792.99 | 801.49 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 748.34 | 764.64 | 781.12 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 704.72 | 727.88 | 751.53 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 656.79 | 685.72 | 715.60 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 606.91 | 640.51 | 675.58 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 10,535.95 | 11,119.21 | 11,728.02 |
| Equity Value (M) | 14,037.20 | 14,730.94 | 15,453.33 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 707.75 | 707.75 | 707.75 |
| Fair Value | $19.83 | $20.81 | $21.83 |
| Upside / Downside | -63.13% | -61.31% | -59.41% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBCP | Home Bancorp, Inc. | 1.92% | $1.10 | 19.54% |
| SLM | SLM Corporation | 1.92% | $0.53 | 17.47% |
| UVE | Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 14.30% |
| WAL | Western Alliance Bancorporation | 1.92% | $1.64 | 20.05% |
| 0JZ1.L | Masco Corporation | 1.91% | $1.23 | 31.44% |
| 0L8B.L | Southern Copper Corporation | 1.91% | $2.80 | 60.30% |
| BKR | Baker Hughes Company | 1.91% | $0.90 | 30.82% |
| BPAC | Bullpen Parlay Acquisition Company | 1.91% | $0.20 | 36.09% |
| ELV | Elevance Health Inc. | 1.91% | $6.75 | 27.56% |
| NGVC | Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. | 1.91% | $0.47 | 23.70% |
| SYBT | Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc. | 1.91% | $1.25 | 27.22% |
| 0JVQ.L | Lowe's Companies, Inc. | 1.90% | $4.67 | 38.55% |
| ATERX | AB Sustainable Global Thematic Fund Class R | 1.90% | $2.84 | 36.57% |
| BLL | Ball Corporation | 1.90% | $1.32 | 9.47% |
| EAI | Entergy Arkansas, Inc. 1M BD 4.875%66 | 1.90% | $0.40 | 9.71% |
| MMC | Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | 1.90% | $3.47 | 41.48% |
| THO | Thor Industries, Inc. | 1.90% | $2.00 | 37.63% |
| TRGP | Targa Resources Corp. | 1.90% | $3.55 | 46.50% |
| TTC | The Toro Company | 1.90% | $1.52 | 45.26% |
| 0K8M.L | Norfolk Southern Corporation | 1.89% | $5.42 | 41.12% |
| FDX | FedEx Corporation | 1.89% | $5.54 | 32.63% |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | 1.87% | $3.81 | 12.13% |
| BERY | Berry Global Group, Inc. | 1.87% | $1.26 | 24.23% |
| NHC | National HealthCare Corporation | 1.87% | $2.44 | 37.72% |
| PRDO | Perdoceo Education Corporation | 1.87% | $0.54 | 23.03% |
| ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.86% | $2.31 | 28.93% |
| TNET | TriNet Group, Inc. | 1.86% | $1.06 | 38.35% |
| BTMD | biote Corp. | 1.85% | $0.05 | 5.82% |
| WDFC | WD-40 Company | 1.85% | $3.65 | 54.36% |
| AMTB | Amerant Bancorp Inc. | 1.84% | $0.36 | 22.80% |
| BNH | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.625% | 1.84% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MGRC | McGrath RentCorp | 1.84% | $1.93 | 32.75% |
| NATI | National Instruments Corporation | 1.84% | $1.10 | 82.38% |
| OTIS | Otis Worldwide Corporation | 1.84% | $1.63 | 47.44% |
| WS | Worthington Steel, Inc. | 1.84% | $0.65 | 26.98% |
| KBH | KB Home | 1.83% | $1.05 | 13.68% |
| WRB | W. R. Berkley Corporation | 1.83% | $1.27 | 26.69% |
| PIPR | Piper Sandler Companies | 1.82% | $6.36 | 47.91% |
| SFBS | ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. | 1.82% | $1.30 | 27.90% |
| YUM | Yum! Brands, Inc. | 1.82% | $2.73 | 54.40% |
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands Corp. | 1.81% | $1.18 | 51.99% |
| HNVR | Hanover Bancorp, Inc. | 1.80% | $0.41 | 26.32% |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply Company | 1.79% | $0.91 | 43.76% |
| CLI | Mack-Cali Realty Corporation | 1.78% | $0.33 | 21.71% |
| RRR | Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | 1.78% | $1.12 | 60.48% |
| SBR | Sabine Royalty Trust | 1.78% | $1.25 | 23.02% |
| TMUS | T-Mobile US, Inc. | 1.78% | $3.55 | 33.70% |
| BWFG | Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. | 1.77% | $0.80 | 21.59% |
| DGX | Quest Diagnostics Incorporated | 1.77% | $3.07 | 35.81% |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 1.77% | $5.75 | 27.69% |