Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Samuel Heath & Sons plc (HSM.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.15 - $7.45$6.27
Multi-Stage$7.53 - $8.25$7.88
Blended Fair Value$7.08
Current Price$3.35
Upside111.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.06%1.06%0.130.120.130.120.000.120.120.180.070.12
YoY Growth--8.52%-7.85%5.41%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-30.68%160.34%-41.61%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.21%4.38%3.07%2.06%0.00%4.96%3.59%3.84%2.27%4.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.360.220.13
Cash Retained (M)1.131.131.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.36-0.22-0.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.770.900.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.532.532.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.360.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.360.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate-0.94%0.06%1.06%
Fair Value$5.15$6.27$7.45
Upside / Downside53.85%87.24%122.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1.791.791.791.791.791.791.85
Payout Ratio36.99%47.59%58.19%68.80%79.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.660.851.041.231.421.611.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate-0.94%0.06%1.06%
Year 1 PV (M)0.770.770.78
Year 2 PV (M)0.840.860.88
Year 3 PV (M)0.900.930.96
Year 4 PV (M)0.940.971.01
Year 5 PV (M)0.961.011.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)14.6715.4316.22
Equity Value (M)19.0819.9820.91
Shares Outstanding (M)2.532.532.53
Fair Value$7.53$7.88$8.25
Upside / Downside124.73%135.29%146.25%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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