Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hensoldt AG (HAG.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.51 - $7.91$6.69
Multi-Stage$9.29 - $10.18$9.73
Blended Fair Value$8.21
Current Price$97.40
Upside-91.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.400.280.230.120.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--43.75%23.08%85.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.64%0.68%0.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.2011.386.83
Cash Retained (M)33.0033.0033.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.20-11.38-6.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.8021.6326.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)115.47115.47115.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.190.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.190.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.51$6.69$7.91
Upside / Downside-94.34%-93.14%-91.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.0090.0989.1988.3087.4186.5489.14
Payout Ratio63.74%68.99%74.24%79.49%84.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.0062.1566.2270.1974.0877.8982.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)56.3456.9157.49
Year 2 PV (M)54.4055.5256.64
Year 3 PV (M)52.2753.8955.54
Year 4 PV (M)50.0052.0854.21
Year 5 PV (M)47.6550.1352.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)812.18854.47898.51
Equity Value (M)1,072.841,123.001,175.11
Shares Outstanding (M)115.47115.47115.47
Fair Value$9.29$9.73$10.18
Upside / Downside-90.46%-90.02%-89.55%

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