Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guararapes Confecções S.A. (GUAR3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.12 - $175.14$69.63
Multi-Stage$19.19 - $21.00$20.08
Blended Fair Value$44.86
Current Price$9.47
Upside373.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.77%108.23%0.120.120.400.350.510.040.010.000.230.23
YoY Growth---0.58%-70.14%16.00%-31.98%1,139.94%230.22%0.00%-100.00%1.61%292,702.56%
Dividend Yield--1.89%1.43%9.38%3.02%3.73%0.38%0.07%0.00%2.50%3.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)440.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)351.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)88.0355.0233.01
Cash Retained (M)351.70351.70351.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-88.03-55.02-33.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)263.68296.69318.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)499.20499.20499.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.590.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.590.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.770.82
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate5.38%6.38%7.38%
Fair Value$34.12$69.63$175.14
Upside / Downside260.26%635.28%1,749.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)440.13468.19498.05529.82563.60599.55617.53
Payout Ratio20.09%34.07%48.05%62.04%76.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.42159.52239.34328.68428.44539.59571.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate5.38%6.38%7.38%
Year 1 PV (M)146.92148.32149.71
Year 2 PV (M)203.02206.89210.80
Year 3 PV (M)256.78264.16271.68
Year 4 PV (M)308.28320.15332.36
Year 5 PV (M)357.59374.88392.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,308.918,710.719,127.90
Equity Value (M)9,581.5010,025.1110,485.29
Shares Outstanding (M)499.20499.20499.20
Fair Value$19.19$20.08$21.00
Upside / Downside102.68%112.06%121.80%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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