Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.34 - $16.38$13.79
Multi-Stage$18.23 - $20.06$19.13
Blended Fair Value$16.46
Current Price$13.62
Upside20.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.200.400.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-49.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%2.04%5.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)326.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)290.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.2040.7524.45
Cash Retained (M)290.00290.00290.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.20-40.75-24.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)224.80249.25265.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)206.99206.99206.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.201.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.201.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.261.381.46
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.34$13.79$16.38
Upside / Downside-16.77%1.26%20.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)326.00322.74319.51316.32313.15310.02319.32
Payout Ratio11.04%26.83%42.63%58.42%74.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.0086.61136.19184.78232.39279.02295.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)78.7379.5380.34
Year 2 PV (M)112.55114.86117.19
Year 3 PV (M)138.82143.11147.49
Year 4 PV (M)158.71165.28172.06
Year 5 PV (M)173.23182.25191.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,112.413,274.483,443.24
Equity Value (M)3,774.453,959.524,151.96
Shares Outstanding (M)206.99206.99206.99
Fair Value$18.23$19.13$20.06
Upside / Downside33.88%40.45%47.27%

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