Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Bilfinger SE (GBF.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.89 - $141.30$101.81
Multi-Stage$122.61 - $134.57$128.48
Blended Fair Value$115.14
Current Price$81.65
Upside41.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.87%-6.52%1.791.295.152.090.191.071.121.170.002.35
YoY Growth--38.89%-74.91%146.75%975.34%-81.89%-4.05%-4.98%0.00%-100.00%-33.23%
Dividend Yield--2.71%3.01%13.17%6.04%0.62%6.97%3.53%3.17%0.00%6.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)185.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)107.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.1623.2313.94
Cash Retained (M)78.1078.1078.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.16-23.23-13.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.9454.8864.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.6337.6337.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.461.71
LTM Dividend per Share2.862.862.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.461.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.954.324.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate1.09%2.09%3.09%
Fair Value$74.89$101.81$141.30
Upside / Downside-8.28%24.69%73.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)185.80189.68193.64197.68201.81206.02212.20
Payout Ratio57.97%64.37%70.78%77.19%83.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)107.70122.10137.06152.58168.70185.42196.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate1.09%2.09%3.09%
Year 1 PV (M)113.61114.73115.86
Year 2 PV (M)118.66121.02123.40
Year 3 PV (M)122.92126.60130.36
Year 4 PV (M)126.45131.53136.76
Year 5 PV (M)129.32135.84142.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,002.674,204.614,414.61
Equity Value (M)4,613.634,834.335,063.62
Shares Outstanding (M)37.6337.6337.63
Fair Value$122.61$128.48$134.57
Upside / Downside50.17%57.35%64.81%

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