Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Public Joint-Stock Company GAZ-Tek (GAZT.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.08 - $32.68$27.82
Multi-Stage$38.65 - $42.19$40.39
Blended Fair Value$34.10
Current Price$88.50
Upside-61.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-89.52%0.00%0.002.420.931.501.271.261.240.000.001.40
YoY Growth---100.00%160.18%-38.00%18.11%0.79%1.61%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%2.73%1.09%1.76%1.49%1.13%1.11%0.00%0.00%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,665.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,579.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)333.09208.18124.91
Cash Retained (M)86.3486.3486.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-333.09-208.18-124.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)-246.75-121.84-38.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)471.45471.45471.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.52-0.26-0.08
LTM Dividend per Share3.353.353.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.52-0.26-0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.833.093.27
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$23.08$27.82$32.68
Upside / Downside-73.92%-68.57%-63.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,665.451,648.801,632.311,615.991,599.831,583.831,631.35
Payout Ratio94.82%93.85%92.89%91.93%90.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,579.121,547.441,516.251,485.521,455.261,425.451,508.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,392.561,406.771,420.98
Year 2 PV (M)1,227.911,253.101,278.54
Year 3 PV (M)1,082.621,116.101,150.26
Year 4 PV (M)954.41993.961,034.74
Year 5 PV (M)841.29885.10930.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,723.0613,385.5814,075.41
Equity Value (M)18,221.8419,040.6019,890.64
Shares Outstanding (M)471.45471.45471.45
Fair Value$38.65$40.39$42.19
Upside / Downside-56.33%-54.36%-52.33%

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