Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.53 - $94.91$74.11
Multi-Stage$47.35 - $51.57$49.42
Blended Fair Value$61.77
Current Price$222.91
Upside-72.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.89%10.33%1.261.211.020.930.800.720.710.650.610.49
YoY Growth--4.03%17.91%10.02%15.95%12.08%1.54%8.19%6.52%25.50%3.75%
Dividend Yield--0.80%1.00%0.70%0.58%0.64%0.72%0.95%0.95%0.93%0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)919.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)266.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)653.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)183.96114.9868.99
Cash Retained (M)653.20653.20653.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-183.96-114.98-68.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)469.24538.23584.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)192.86192.86192.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.432.793.03
LTM Dividend per Share1.381.381.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.432.793.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.824.174.41
WACC / Discount Rate12.50%12.50%12.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$57.53$74.11$94.91
Upside / Downside-74.19%-66.75%-57.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)919.80979.591,043.261,111.071,183.291,260.211,298.01
Payout Ratio28.98%41.19%53.39%65.59%77.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)266.60403.47557.00728.79920.561,134.191,200.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.50%12.50%12.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)355.28358.65362.02
Year 2 PV (M)431.90440.13448.43
Year 3 PV (M)497.61511.90526.45
Year 4 PV (M)553.48574.77596.66
Year 5 PV (M)600.48629.48659.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,693.457,016.747,352.41
Equity Value (M)9,132.209,531.669,945.57
Shares Outstanding (M)192.86192.86192.86
Fair Value$47.35$49.42$51.57
Upside / Downside-78.76%-77.83%-76.87%

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