Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $553.03 - $1,467.05 | $845.65 |
| Multi-Stage | $370.99 - $405.75 | $388.06 |
| Blended Fair Value | $616.85 | |
| Current Price | $825.18 | |
| Upside | -25.25% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 24.08% | 17.61% | 1.20 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 40.77% | 51.31% | 15.49% | 12.16% | 6.57% | 18.54% | 11.66% | 7.04% | 9.68% | 10.82% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.37% | 0.27% | 0.39% | 0.55% | 0.58% | 1.12% | 0.65% | 0.75% | 0.79% | 0.83% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 837.62 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 60.12 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 777.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 167.52 | 104.70 | 62.82 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 777.50 | 777.50 | 777.50 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -167.52 | -104.70 | -62.82 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 609.98 | 672.80 | 714.68 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 35.53 | 35.53 | 35.53 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 17.17 | 18.94 | 20.12 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.69 | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 17.17 | 18.94 | 20.12 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 18.86 | 20.63 | 21.81 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $553.03 | $845.65 | $1,467.05 |
| Upside / Downside | -32.98% | 2.48% | 77.79% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 837.62 | 892.07 | 950.05 | 1,011.81 | 1,077.57 | 1,147.61 | 1,182.04 |
| Payout Ratio | 7.18% | 23.74% | 40.31% | 56.87% | 73.44% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 60.12 | 211.79 | 382.93 | 575.42 | 791.32 | 1,032.85 | 1,093.39 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 192.31 | 194.13 | 195.95 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 315.71 | 321.73 | 327.80 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 430.77 | 443.14 | 455.74 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 537.89 | 558.58 | 579.86 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 637.48 | 668.27 | 700.24 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 11,066.70 | 11,601.22 | 12,156.20 |
| Equity Value (M) | 13,180.86 | 13,787.07 | 14,415.79 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 35.53 | 35.53 | 35.53 |
| Fair Value | $370.99 | $388.06 | $405.75 |
| Upside / Downside | -55.04% | -52.97% | -50.83% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBCP | Home Bancorp, Inc. | 1.92% | $1.10 | 19.54% |
| SLM | SLM Corporation | 1.92% | $0.53 | 17.47% |
| UVE | Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 14.30% |
| WAL | Western Alliance Bancorporation | 1.92% | $1.64 | 20.05% |
| 0JZ1.L | Masco Corporation | 1.91% | $1.23 | 31.44% |
| 0L8B.L | Southern Copper Corporation | 1.91% | $2.80 | 60.30% |
| BKR | Baker Hughes Company | 1.91% | $0.90 | 30.82% |
| BPAC | Bullpen Parlay Acquisition Company | 1.91% | $0.20 | 36.09% |
| ELV | Elevance Health Inc. | 1.91% | $6.75 | 27.56% |
| NGVC | Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. | 1.91% | $0.47 | 23.70% |
| SYBT | Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc. | 1.91% | $1.25 | 27.22% |
| 0JVQ.L | Lowe's Companies, Inc. | 1.90% | $4.67 | 38.55% |
| ATERX | AB Sustainable Global Thematic Fund Class R | 1.90% | $2.84 | 36.57% |
| BLL | Ball Corporation | 1.90% | $1.32 | 9.47% |
| EAI | Entergy Arkansas, Inc. 1M BD 4.875%66 | 1.90% | $0.40 | 9.71% |
| MMC | Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | 1.90% | $3.47 | 41.48% |
| THO | Thor Industries, Inc. | 1.90% | $2.00 | 37.63% |
| TRGP | Targa Resources Corp. | 1.90% | $3.55 | 46.50% |
| TTC | The Toro Company | 1.90% | $1.52 | 45.26% |
| 0K8M.L | Norfolk Southern Corporation | 1.89% | $5.42 | 41.12% |
| FDX | FedEx Corporation | 1.89% | $5.54 | 32.63% |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | 1.87% | $3.81 | 12.13% |
| BERY | Berry Global Group, Inc. | 1.87% | $1.26 | 24.23% |
| NHC | National HealthCare Corporation | 1.87% | $2.44 | 37.72% |
| PRDO | Perdoceo Education Corporation | 1.87% | $0.54 | 23.03% |
| ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 1.86% | $2.31 | 28.93% |
| TNET | TriNet Group, Inc. | 1.86% | $1.06 | 38.35% |
| BTMD | biote Corp. | 1.85% | $0.05 | 5.82% |
| WDFC | WD-40 Company | 1.85% | $3.65 | 54.36% |
| AMTB | Amerant Bancorp Inc. | 1.84% | $0.36 | 22.80% |
| BNH | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.625% | 1.84% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MGRC | McGrath RentCorp | 1.84% | $1.93 | 32.75% |
| NATI | National Instruments Corporation | 1.84% | $1.10 | 82.38% |
| OTIS | Otis Worldwide Corporation | 1.84% | $1.63 | 47.44% |
| WS | Worthington Steel, Inc. | 1.84% | $0.65 | 26.98% |
| KBH | KB Home | 1.83% | $1.05 | 13.68% |
| WRB | W. R. Berkley Corporation | 1.83% | $1.27 | 26.69% |
| PIPR | Piper Sandler Companies | 1.82% | $6.36 | 47.91% |
| SFBS | ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. | 1.82% | $1.30 | 27.90% |
| YUM | Yum! Brands, Inc. | 1.82% | $2.73 | 54.40% |
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands Corp. | 1.81% | $1.18 | 51.99% |
| HNVR | Hanover Bancorp, Inc. | 1.80% | $0.41 | 26.32% |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply Company | 1.79% | $0.91 | 43.76% |
| CLI | Mack-Cali Realty Corporation | 1.78% | $0.33 | 21.71% |
| RRR | Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | 1.78% | $1.12 | 60.48% |
| SBR | Sabine Royalty Trust | 1.78% | $1.25 | 23.02% |
| TMUS | T-Mobile US, Inc. | 1.78% | $3.55 | 33.70% |
| BWFG | Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. | 1.77% | $0.80 | 21.59% |
| DGX | Quest Diagnostics Incorporated | 1.77% | $3.07 | 35.81% |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 1.77% | $5.75 | 27.69% |