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Definitive Analysis

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Casa de Bolsa Finamex S.A.B. de C.V. (FINAMEXO.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.71 - $44.07$37.24
Multi-Stage$43.44 - $47.76$45.56
Blended Fair Value$41.40
Current Price$29.40
Upside40.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.81%0.00%1.510.710.711.420.000.503.421.780.851.14
YoY Growth--112.00%0.00%-50.00%0.00%-100.00%-85.42%92.00%108.33%-25.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.14%2.46%2.37%4.07%0.00%1.42%8.52%4.06%1.94%2.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)307.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)305.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.4638.4123.05
Cash Retained (M)305.30305.30305.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.46-38.41-23.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)243.84266.89282.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.2370.2370.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.473.804.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.473.804.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.503.834.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-1.37%-0.37%0.63%
Fair Value$30.71$37.24$44.07
Upside / Downside4.46%26.68%49.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)307.30306.16305.03303.90302.77301.65310.70
Payout Ratio0.65%18.52%36.39%54.26%72.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.0056.70111.00164.89218.39271.48287.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-1.37%-0.37%0.63%
Year 1 PV (M)51.0951.6152.13
Year 2 PV (M)90.1191.9593.80
Year 3 PV (M)120.62124.32128.10
Year 4 PV (M)143.93149.86155.97
Year 5 PV (M)161.21169.55178.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,483.482,611.962,745.70
Equity Value (M)3,050.453,199.263,353.94
Shares Outstanding (M)70.2370.2370.23
Fair Value$43.44$45.56$47.76
Upside / Downside47.75%54.95%62.45%

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