Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.43 - $10.86$9.09
Multi-Stage$12.44 - $13.70$13.06
Blended Fair Value$11.07
Current Price$66.93
Upside-83.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.040.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)314.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)305.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.9039.3123.59
Cash Retained (M)305.39305.39305.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.90-39.31-23.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)242.49266.08281.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)319.89319.89319.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.760.830.88
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.760.830.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.43$9.09$10.86
Upside / Downside-88.90%-86.42%-83.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)314.50311.36308.24305.16302.11299.09308.06
Payout Ratio2.90%20.32%37.74%55.16%72.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.1163.26116.33168.32219.27269.18284.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)57.7858.3758.96
Year 2 PV (M)97.0699.05101.06
Year 3 PV (M)128.28132.25136.30
Year 4 PV (M)152.64158.97165.49
Year 5 PV (M)171.16180.07189.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,372.543,548.163,731.02
Equity Value (M)3,979.464,176.874,382.17
Shares Outstanding (M)319.89319.89319.89
Fair Value$12.44$13.06$13.70
Upside / Downside-81.41%-80.49%-79.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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