Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dollarama Inc. (DOL.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Discount StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$761.58 - $897.26$840.87
Multi-Stage$214.42 - $235.15$224.59
Blended Fair Value$532.73
Current Price$189.38
Upside181.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.42%8.80%0.350.270.230.220.200.190.180.170.170.16
YoY Growth--27.73%20.89%4.15%10.40%1.16%5.55%4.83%4.25%4.03%7.84%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.24%0.26%0.30%0.34%0.44%0.46%0.36%0.42%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,262.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)106.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,155.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)252.40157.7594.65
Cash Retained (M)1,155.351,155.351,155.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-252.40-157.75-94.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)902.95997.601,060.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)279.72279.72279.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.233.573.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.233.573.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.613.954.17
WACC / Discount Rate5.17%5.17%5.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$761.58$840.87$897.26
Upside / Downside302.14%344.01%373.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,262.011,344.041,431.411,524.451,623.541,729.071,780.94
Payout Ratio8.45%24.76%41.07%57.38%73.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)106.67332.81587.90874.741,196.391,556.161,647.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.17%5.17%5.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)313.48316.45319.42
Year 2 PV (M)521.59531.53541.56
Year 3 PV (M)731.01752.00773.38
Year 4 PV (M)941.75977.971,015.22
Year 5 PV (M)1,153.801,209.531,267.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)56,315.7059,035.7761,859.94
Equity Value (M)59,977.3462,823.2565,776.92
Shares Outstanding (M)279.72279.72279.72
Fair Value$214.42$224.59$235.15
Upside / Downside13.22%18.59%24.17%

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