Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Disa India Limited (DISAQ.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,207.24 - $13,195.84$8,819.34
Multi-Stage$4,511.64 - $4,928.63$4,716.36
Blended Fair Value$6,767.85
Current Price$13,497.80
Upside-49.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS132.16%57.74%199.43109.82259.949.972.482.962.962.542.612.61
YoY Growth--81.59%-57.75%2,506.90%302.78%-16.28%0.00%16.22%-2.63%0.00%25.00%
Dividend Yield--1.42%0.70%2.55%0.16%0.05%0.09%0.05%0.04%0.05%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)479.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)407.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)95.9659.9835.99
Cash Retained (M)407.10407.10407.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-95.96-59.98-35.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)311.14347.13371.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.451.451.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share213.97238.71255.21
LTM Dividend per Share49.9949.9949.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share213.97238.71255.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend263.96288.71305.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,207.24$8,819.34$13,195.84
Upside / Downside-54.01%-34.66%-2.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)479.80510.99544.20579.57617.25657.37677.09
Payout Ratio15.15%30.12%45.09%60.06%75.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.70153.92245.39348.10463.12591.63626.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)138.63139.94141.26
Year 2 PV (M)199.06202.85206.68
Year 3 PV (M)254.33261.63269.07
Year 4 PV (M)304.76316.48328.53
Year 5 PV (M)350.65367.58385.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,313.215,569.845,836.29
Equity Value (M)6,560.636,858.327,166.99
Shares Outstanding (M)1.451.451.45
Fair Value$4,511.64$4,716.36$4,928.63
Upside / Downside-66.57%-65.06%-63.49%

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