Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Becle, S.A.B. de C.V. (CUERVO.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$274.00 - $489.79$459.00
Multi-Stage$76.78 - $84.11$80.37
Blended Fair Value$269.69
Current Price$19.58
Upside1,277.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.28%21.76%0.420.490.420.430.150.550.510.720.610.57
YoY Growth---15.21%16.83%-2.30%184.36%-72.30%7.87%-30.03%18.07%7.04%885.04%
Dividend Yield--2.21%1.22%0.90%0.88%0.32%1.88%1.66%1.99%1.85%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,843.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,502.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,341.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,768.781,105.49663.29
Cash Retained (M)7,341.567,341.567,341.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,768.78-1,105.49-663.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,572.786,236.076,678.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,591.003,591.003,591.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.551.741.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.551.741.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.972.152.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$274.00$459.00$489.79
Upside / Downside1,299.37%2,244.25%2,401.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,843.929,418.7710,031.0010,683.0111,377.4112,116.9412,480.44
Payout Ratio16.99%31.59%46.19%60.79%75.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,502.362,975.394,633.566,494.738,578.2810,905.2411,544.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,773.842,800.142,826.43
Year 2 PV (M)4,027.104,103.814,181.23
Year 3 PV (M)5,262.325,413.385,567.31
Year 4 PV (M)6,479.706,728.896,985.20
Year 5 PV (M)7,679.428,050.348,435.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)249,477.19261,527.03274,038.05
Equity Value (M)275,699.58288,623.59302,033.68
Shares Outstanding (M)3,591.003,591.003,591.00
Fair Value$76.78$80.37$84.11
Upside / Downside292.11%310.49%329.56%

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