Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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John Cockerill India Ltd. (COCKERILL.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.99 - $207.69$172.32
Multi-Stage$187.63 - $205.66$196.48
Blended Fair Value$184.40
Current Price$5,927.35
Upside-96.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.37%53.77%6.964.971.990.005.0012.032.870.050.030.03
YoY Growth--39.98%149.81%0.00%-100.00%-58.45%319.27%5,592.37%90.08%-22.49%-63.66%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.08%0.07%0.00%0.54%2.50%0.26%0.01%0.01%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.8410.526.31
Cash Retained (M)64.5364.5364.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.84-10.52-6.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.6954.0158.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.944.944.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.6610.9311.79
LTM Dividend per Share3.983.983.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.6610.9311.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.6314.9115.76
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate0.14%1.14%2.14%
Fair Value$139.99$172.32$207.69
Upside / Downside-97.64%-97.09%-96.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.1885.1486.1187.0988.0889.0991.76
Payout Ratio23.35%36.68%50.01%63.34%76.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.6531.2343.0655.1667.5380.1884.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate0.14%1.14%2.14%
Year 1 PV (M)28.1328.4228.70
Year 2 PV (M)34.9635.6636.37
Year 3 PV (M)40.3541.5742.81
Year 4 PV (M)44.5046.3148.17
Year 5 PV (M)47.6050.0352.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)731.27768.52807.27
Equity Value (M)926.82970.501,015.87
Shares Outstanding (M)4.944.944.94
Fair Value$187.63$196.48$205.66
Upside / Downside-96.83%-96.69%-96.53%

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