Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Sariguna Primatirta Tbk (CLEO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,126.21 - $7,523.91$7,026.32
Multi-Stage$946.02 - $1,035.92$990.15
Blended Fair Value$4,008.23
Current Price$615.00
Upside551.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%5.051.651.005.010.000.000.000.004.000.00
YoY Growth--206.06%65.00%-80.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.22%0.21%1.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%10.26%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)452,474.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)392,474.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90,494.9556,559.3533,935.61
Cash Retained (M)392,474.77392,474.77392,474.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-90,494.95-56,559.35-33,935.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)301,979.82335,915.42358,539.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,959.9911,959.9911,959.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.2528.0929.98
LTM Dividend per Share5.025.025.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.2528.0929.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend30.2733.1034.99
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,126.21$7,026.32$7,523.91
Upside / Downside245.73%1,042.49%1,123.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)452,474.77481,885.63513,208.19546,566.73582,093.56619,929.65638,527.54
Payout Ratio13.26%28.61%43.96%59.30%74.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60,000.00137,859.41225,587.05324,136.82434,544.96557,936.68590,637.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)127,628.71128,838.46130,048.21
Year 2 PV (M)193,347.27197,030.00200,747.46
Year 3 PV (M)257,195.99264,579.17272,102.30
Year 4 PV (M)319,214.41331,490.50344,117.30
Year 5 PV (M)379,441.32397,768.48416,797.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,037,610.7310,522,431.0811,025,806.65
Equity Value (M)11,314,438.4411,842,137.6812,389,618.98
Shares Outstanding (M)11,959.9911,959.9911,959.99
Fair Value$946.02$990.15$1,035.92
Upside / Downside53.83%61.00%68.44%

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