Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Calian Group Ltd. (CGY.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$156.43 - $349.81$327.82
Multi-Stage$53.24 - $58.22$55.68
Blended Fair Value$191.75
Current Price$50.02
Upside283.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.47%4.61%1.111.141.131.091.010.850.750.740.730.71
YoY Growth---2.86%1.43%3.12%7.94%19.00%12.89%1.56%1.74%2.40%0.70%
Dividend Yield--2.22%2.36%1.97%1.64%1.64%1.29%1.96%2.52%2.30%2.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.112.571.54
Cash Retained (M)7.597.597.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.11-2.57-1.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.485.026.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.6911.6911.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.430.52
LTM Dividend per Share1.111.111.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.430.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.411.541.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$156.43$327.82$349.81
Upside / Downside212.74%555.38%599.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20.5621.8923.3224.8326.4528.1629.01
Payout Ratio63.09%68.47%73.85%79.24%84.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.9714.9917.2219.6822.3825.3526.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13.9514.0814.21
Year 2 PV (M)14.9115.2015.48
Year 3 PV (M)15.8616.3116.78
Year 4 PV (M)16.7817.4318.09
Year 5 PV (M)17.6918.5519.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)543.00569.22596.46
Equity Value (M)622.19650.79680.45
Shares Outstanding (M)11.6911.6911.69
Fair Value$53.24$55.68$58.22
Upside / Downside6.43%11.32%16.40%

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