Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cencosud S.A. (CENCOSUD.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,614.78 - $6,030.35$3,822.06
Multi-Stage$3,253.18 - $3,572.89$3,410.00
Blended Fair Value$3,616.03
Current Price$2,735.00
Upside32.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.53%0.53%21.03103.13128.30250.6032.6110.2225.5551.0981.1628.87
YoY Growth---79.61%-19.62%-48.80%668.52%219.09%-60.00%-49.99%-37.05%181.09%44.74%
Dividend Yield--0.73%6.01%8.35%16.17%2.12%1.15%2.16%2.76%4.00%1.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)365,825.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41,941.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)323,884.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73,165.1645,728.2227,436.93
Cash Retained (M)323,884.59323,884.59323,884.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-73,165.16-45,728.22-27,436.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)250,719.43278,156.36296,447.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,801.752,801.752,801.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share89.4999.28105.81
LTM Dividend per Share14.9714.9714.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share89.4999.28105.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend104.46114.25120.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Fair Value$2,614.78$3,822.06$6,030.35
Upside / Downside-4.40%39.75%120.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)365,825.79378,306.52391,213.04404,559.89418,362.09432,635.17445,614.23
Payout Ratio11.46%27.17%42.88%58.59%74.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41,941.21102,792.85167,747.78237,015.14310,813.58389,371.66412,193.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)95,583.2196,516.5397,449.85
Year 2 PV (M)145,042.12147,888.48150,762.50
Year 3 PV (M)190,560.17196,197.03201,943.98
Year 4 PV (M)232,367.14241,576.74251,057.43
Year 5 PV (M)270,680.97284,156.93298,164.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,180,371.048,587,633.929,010,958.25
Equity Value (M)9,114,604.649,553,969.6310,010,336.35
Shares Outstanding (M)2,801.752,801.752,801.75
Fair Value$3,253.18$3,410.00$3,572.89
Upside / Downside18.95%24.68%30.64%

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