Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Companhia Distribuidora de Gás do Rio de Janeiro - CEG (CEGR3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.75 - $66.08$49.83
Multi-Stage$70.43 - $77.38$73.84
Blended Fair Value$61.83
Current Price$96.72
Upside-36.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.99%1.26%1.501.040.632.370.922.160.850.760.300.61
YoY Growth--43.84%65.93%-73.44%158.40%-57.50%154.63%11.05%158.32%-51.86%-53.70%
Dividend Yield--2.68%1.53%0.71%2.96%1.65%3.59%1.76%2.54%1.14%2.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)732.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)380.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)351.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)146.4391.5254.91
Cash Retained (M)351.62351.62351.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-146.43-91.52-54.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)205.19260.10296.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)253.53253.53253.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.811.031.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.811.031.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.312.532.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Fair Value$37.75$49.83$66.08
Upside / Downside-60.97%-48.48%-31.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)732.14740.88749.73758.69767.75776.92800.23
Payout Ratio51.97%59.58%67.18%74.79%82.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)380.52441.41503.70567.42632.59699.23740.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)411.04415.15419.25
Year 2 PV (M)436.79445.55454.40
Year 3 PV (M)458.19472.05486.18
Year 4 PV (M)475.68494.96514.81
Year 5 PV (M)489.62514.55540.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,585.0316,378.4417,203.85
Equity Value (M)17,856.3518,720.7019,618.98
Shares Outstanding (M)253.53253.53253.53
Fair Value$70.43$73.84$77.38
Upside / Downside-27.18%-23.66%-19.99%

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