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Definitive Analysis

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CCR S.A. (CCRO3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.97 - $31.43$20.25
Multi-Stage$20.00 - $21.93$20.95
Blended Fair Value$20.60
Current Price$11.50
Upside79.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.44%-6.07%0.370.190.380.140.480.760.600.630.620.52
YoY Growth--95.78%-50.28%179.48%-71.71%-36.86%27.13%-4.79%1.80%19.02%-24.96%
Dividend Yield--3.22%1.45%3.16%1.09%4.13%7.49%6.20%6.64%4.54%5.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,452.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)967.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)485.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)290.57181.60108.96
Cash Retained (M)485.65485.65485.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-290.57-181.60-108.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)195.08304.05376.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,020.002,020.002,020.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate2.01%3.01%4.01%
Fair Value$13.97$20.25$31.43
Upside / Downside21.47%76.07%173.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,452.841,496.561,541.611,588.001,635.801,685.031,735.58
Payout Ratio66.57%71.26%75.94%80.63%85.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)967.191,066.421,170.751,280.391,395.571,516.531,605.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate2.01%3.01%4.01%
Year 1 PV (M)994.311,004.061,013.80
Year 2 PV (M)1,017.771,037.821,058.07
Year 3 PV (M)1,037.821,068.641,100.06
Year 4 PV (M)1,054.681,096.651,139.86
Year 5 PV (M)1,068.591,122.011,177.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,226.3536,987.1638,817.68
Equity Value (M)40,399.5242,316.3344,307.01
Shares Outstanding (M)2,020.002,020.002,020.00
Fair Value$20.00$20.95$21.93
Upside / Downside73.91%82.16%90.73%

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