Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,513.77 - $4,015.80$3,195.11
Multi-Stage$4,543.66 - $4,997.20$4,766.03
Blended Fair Value$3,980.57
Current Price$2,520.00
Upside57.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%64.2578.2313.407.169.760.0053.9753.970.000.00
YoY Growth---17.88%483.92%87.19%-26.65%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.21%2.97%0.54%0.27%0.34%0.00%1.49%1.61%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,572,585.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)642,260.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,930,325.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)514,517.00321,573.13192,943.88
Cash Retained (M)1,930,325.001,930,325.001,930,325.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-514,517.00-321,573.13-192,943.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,415,808.001,608,751.881,737,381.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,645.9510,645.9510,645.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share132.99151.11163.20
LTM Dividend per Share60.3360.3360.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share132.99151.11163.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend193.32211.44223.53
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Fair Value$2,513.77$3,195.11$4,015.80
Upside / Downside-0.25%26.79%59.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,572,585.002,582,642.112,592,738.542,602,874.432,613,049.962,623,265.262,701,963.21
Payout Ratio24.97%37.97%50.98%63.99%76.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)642,260.00980,692.231,321,760.741,665,480.962,011,868.432,360,938.732,499,315.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)907,112.58916,239.29925,366.01
Year 2 PV (M)1,130,862.381,153,732.711,176,831.98
Year 3 PV (M)1,318,029.221,358,214.021,399,207.40
Year 4 PV (M)1,472,696.981,532,866.341,594,860.88
Year 5 PV (M)1,598,552.831,680,604.831,765,992.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,944,279.3844,097,234.3246,337,702.53
Equity Value (M)48,371,533.3850,738,891.5153,199,960.88
Shares Outstanding (M)10,645.9510,645.9510,645.95
Fair Value$4,543.66$4,766.03$4,997.20
Upside / Downside80.30%89.13%98.30%

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