Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Superior Prima Sukses Tbk. (BLES.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.08 - $184.98$149.56
Multi-Stage$273.07 - $300.88$286.70
Blended Fair Value$218.13
Current Price$175.00
Upside24.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%3.366.775.650.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---50.37%20.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.82%2.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111,889.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32,017.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)79,871.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22,377.9213,986.208,391.72
Cash Retained (M)79,871.8879,871.8879,871.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-22,377.92-13,986.20-8,391.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)57,493.9565,885.6871,480.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,857.368,857.368,857.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.497.448.07
LTM Dividend per Share3.613.613.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.497.448.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.1111.0511.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$119.08$149.56$184.98
Upside / Downside-31.95%-14.54%5.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111,889.62110,770.72109,663.02108,566.39107,480.72106,405.92109,598.09
Payout Ratio28.62%40.89%53.17%65.45%77.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32,017.7445,296.7858,307.0471,052.5683,537.3495,765.32101,378.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)42,175.1442,605.5043,035.85
Year 2 PV (M)50,547.4551,584.3052,631.67
Year 3 PV (M)57,351.8159,125.4660,935.30
Year 4 PV (M)62,782.3065,384.3368,066.42
Year 5 PV (M)67,012.2270,501.7074,135.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,138,829.022,250,202.812,366,168.61
Equity Value (M)2,418,697.942,539,404.092,664,972.90
Shares Outstanding (M)8,857.368,857.368,857.36
Fair Value$273.07$286.70$300.88
Upside / Downside56.04%63.83%71.93%

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