Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Bank Mestika Dharma Tbk (BBMD.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,236.62 - $2,271.44$1,663.79
Multi-Stage$1,787.89 - $1,961.66$1,873.13
Blended Fair Value$1,768.46
Current Price$2,120.00
Upside-16.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%5.60%34.2534.2534.2429.770.000.0014.8914.8914.8912.40
YoY Growth--0.00%0.03%15.01%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%20.05%-37.53%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.70%1.75%1.45%0.00%0.00%1.08%1.06%0.96%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)342,869.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)137,997.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)204,871.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68,573.8942,858.6825,715.21
Cash Retained (M)204,871.93204,871.93204,871.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-68,573.89-42,858.68-25,715.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)136,298.04162,013.25179,156.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,029.134,029.134,029.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.8340.2144.47
LTM Dividend per Share34.2534.2534.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.8340.2144.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend68.0874.4678.72
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Fair Value$1,236.62$1,663.79$2,271.44
Upside / Downside-41.67%-21.52%7.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)342,869.45351,269.54359,875.43368,692.15377,724.88386,978.91398,588.27
Payout Ratio40.25%50.20%60.15%70.10%80.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)137,997.52176,331.21216,460.39258,450.00302,367.13348,281.02368,694.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Year 1 PV (M)163,133.73164,741.75166,349.77
Year 2 PV (M)185,271.04188,941.51192,647.97
Year 3 PV (M)204,653.99210,765.71216,997.92
Year 4 PV (M)221,509.73230,373.47239,500.60
Year 5 PV (M)236,049.24247,914.64260,252.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,193,029.346,504,332.106,828,029.38
Equity Value (M)7,203,647.077,547,069.187,903,778.11
Shares Outstanding (M)4,029.134,029.134,029.13
Fair Value$1,787.89$1,873.13$1,961.66
Upside / Downside-15.67%-11.64%-7.47%

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