Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ashtrom Group Ltd. (ASHG.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.15 - $40.95$32.96
Multi-Stage$62.49 - $68.87$65.62
Blended Fair Value$49.29
Current Price$69.66
Upside-29.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001.933.093.291.551.010.750.520.440.29
YoY Growth---100.00%-37.50%-5.88%112.44%53.89%33.33%44.44%20.00%50.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.60%5.73%3.48%2.46%2.58%3.38%3.56%3.78%3.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)279.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)199.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.9734.9820.99
Cash Retained (M)199.84199.84199.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.97-34.98-20.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)143.87164.86178.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.45103.45103.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.391.591.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.770.770.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.391.591.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.162.372.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.11%6.11%6.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$26.15$32.96$40.95
Upside / Downside-62.46%-52.69%-41.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)279.84277.04274.27271.53268.81266.13274.11
Payout Ratio28.59%40.87%53.15%65.44%77.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.00113.23145.78177.68208.92239.51253.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.11%6.11%6.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)105.63106.71107.79
Year 2 PV (M)126.87129.48132.11
Year 3 PV (M)144.25148.72153.27
Year 4 PV (M)158.24164.79171.55
Year 5 PV (M)169.24178.05187.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,760.356,060.316,372.63
Equity Value (M)6,464.586,788.057,124.57
Shares Outstanding (M)103.45103.45103.45
Fair Value$62.49$65.62$68.87
Upside / Downside-10.29%-5.80%-1.13%

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