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Definitive Analysis

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AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,489.95 - $4,111.75$3,853.31
Multi-Stage$1,372.49 - $1,505.94$1,437.97
Blended Fair Value$2,645.64
Current Price$121.47
Upside2,078.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.760.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,789.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)194.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,594.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)757.81473.63284.18
Cash Retained (M)3,594.223,594.223,594.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-757.81-473.63-284.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,836.423,120.603,310.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)183.27183.27183.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share15.4817.0318.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.061.061.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share15.4817.0318.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.5418.0919.12
WACC / Discount Rate4.57%4.57%4.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,489.95$3,853.31$4,111.75
Upside / Downside2,773.09%3,072.23%3,284.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,789.034,035.324,297.624,576.964,874.465,191.305,347.04
Payout Ratio5.14%22.11%39.08%56.06%73.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)194.81892.341,679.722,565.693,559.744,672.174,946.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.57%4.57%4.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)845.34853.35861.36
Year 2 PV (M)1,507.441,536.151,565.13
Year 3 PV (M)2,181.262,243.882,307.68
Year 4 PV (M)2,866.972,977.233,090.63
Year 5 PV (M)3,564.723,736.903,915.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)240,564.31252,183.66264,247.70
Equity Value (M)251,530.03263,531.15275,988.17
Shares Outstanding (M)183.27183.27183.27
Fair Value$1,372.49$1,437.97$1,505.94
Upside / Downside1,029.90%1,083.81%1,139.77%

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