Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Takihyo Co., Ltd. (9982.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,275.99 - $1,849.41$1,554.44
Multi-Stage$3,399.97 - $3,755.97$3,574.36
Blended Fair Value$2,564.40
Current Price$1,737.00
Upside47.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-6.21%-3.18%30.2320.6020.6020.7131.3541.6541.7641.7641.6541.76
YoY Growth--46.74%0.00%-0.54%-33.93%-24.73%-0.27%0.00%0.27%-0.27%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.91%1.84%2.18%2.01%1.73%2.45%2.36%1.78%1.83%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,607.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)309.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,298.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)321.40200.88120.53
Cash Retained (M)1,298.001,298.001,298.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-321.40-200.88-120.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)976.601,097.131,177.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.938.938.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share109.33122.83131.82
LTM Dividend per Share34.5934.5934.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share109.33122.83131.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend143.93157.42166.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-4.44%-3.44%-2.44%
Fair Value$1,275.99$1,554.44$1,849.41
Upside / Downside-26.54%-10.51%6.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,607.001,551.651,498.221,446.621,396.801,348.691,389.15
Payout Ratio19.23%33.38%47.54%61.69%75.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)309.00517.98712.21892.441,059.411,213.821,284.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-4.44%-3.44%-2.44%
Year 1 PV (M)482.08487.13492.17
Year 2 PV (M)616.90629.88643.00
Year 3 PV (M)719.44742.26765.56
Year 4 PV (M)794.84828.64863.51
Year 5 PV (M)847.57892.86940.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,908.4928,346.2629,844.85
Equity Value (M)30,369.3331,927.0433,549.15
Shares Outstanding (M)8.938.938.93
Fair Value$3,399.97$3,574.36$3,755.97
Upside / Downside95.74%105.78%116.23%

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