Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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JASTEC Co., Ltd. (9717.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,307.25 - $5,385.12$3,385.91
Multi-Stage$1,841.10 - $2,013.64$1,925.79
Blended Fair Value$2,655.85
Current Price$1,938.84
Upside36.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS10.61%5.11%49.2048.5177.1429.4829.3729.7229.5630.2930.1729.85
YoY Growth--1.42%-37.12%161.73%0.35%-1.16%0.54%-2.43%0.42%1.06%-0.12%
Dividend Yield--3.58%3.90%7.31%2.40%3.25%3.04%2.34%2.89%3.46%3.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,927.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)424.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,502.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)385.40240.88144.53
Cash Retained (M)1,502.981,502.981,502.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-385.40-240.88-144.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,117.581,262.101,358.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.3217.3217.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share64.5472.8978.45
LTM Dividend per Share24.4924.4924.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share64.5472.8978.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend89.0397.37102.94
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate4.68%5.68%6.68%
Fair Value$2,307.25$3,385.91$5,385.12
Upside / Downside19.00%74.64%177.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,927.002,036.482,152.172,274.442,403.652,540.212,616.41
Payout Ratio22.00%35.60%49.20%62.80%76.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)424.03725.061,058.931,428.391,836.412,286.192,420.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate4.68%5.68%6.68%
Year 1 PV (M)660.59666.90673.21
Year 2 PV (M)878.99895.87912.90
Year 3 PV (M)1,080.261,111.511,143.36
Year 4 PV (M)1,265.351,314.401,364.86
Year 5 PV (M)1,435.201,505.071,577.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,559.8927,852.9729,195.93
Equity Value (M)31,880.2833,346.7234,867.91
Shares Outstanding (M)17.3217.3217.32
Fair Value$1,841.10$1,925.79$2,013.64
Upside / Downside-5.04%-0.67%3.86%

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