Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Conexio Corporation (9422.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,314.38 - $2,573.90$1,812.32
Multi-Stage$1,682.28 - $1,845.13$1,762.17
Blended Fair Value$1,787.25
Current Price$1,908.00
Upside-6.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS6.32%10.22%70.0160.0260.0265.0259.9951.5244.4833.7332.2526.47
YoY Growth--16.65%0.00%-7.70%8.38%16.44%15.83%31.88%4.57%21.88%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.27%4.00%4.22%4.58%3.11%2.67%3.47%2.54%3.64%2.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,616.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,179.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,437.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)723.20452.00271.20
Cash Retained (M)2,437.002,437.002,437.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-723.20-452.00-271.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,713.801,985.002,165.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.7444.7444.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share38.3144.3748.41
LTM Dividend per Share26.3526.3526.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share38.3144.3748.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend64.6670.7274.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate2.15%3.15%4.15%
Fair Value$1,314.38$1,812.32$2,573.90
Upside / Downside-31.11%-5.01%34.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,616.003,729.873,847.323,968.484,093.454,222.354,349.02
Payout Ratio32.61%44.08%55.56%67.04%78.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,179.001,644.282,137.692,660.553,214.213,800.114,022.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate2.15%3.15%4.15%
Year 1 PV (M)1,519.341,534.211,549.08
Year 2 PV (M)1,825.161,861.071,897.33
Year 3 PV (M)2,098.972,161.222,224.69
Year 4 PV (M)2,343.092,436.202,532.05
Year 5 PV (M)2,559.702,687.472,820.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,915.0268,155.3171,523.72
Equity Value (M)75,261.2878,835.4882,547.17
Shares Outstanding (M)44.7444.7444.74
Fair Value$1,682.28$1,762.17$1,845.13
Upside / Downside-11.83%-7.64%-3.29%

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