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Definitive Analysis

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Mitsubishi Logistics Corporation (9301.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11,137.64 - $26,637.68$24,963.40
Multi-Stage$3,873.81 - $4,241.86$4,054.45
Blended Fair Value$14,508.92
Current Price$1,212.50
Upside1,096.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.66%18.24%31.1321.3418.2615.6314.2014.417.037.285.835.83
YoY Growth--45.90%16.87%16.82%10.04%-1.42%104.88%-3.39%24.96%0.00%-0.05%
Dividend Yield--2.63%2.00%2.57%2.41%2.16%2.59%1.18%1.52%0.97%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48,355.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,739.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)36,616.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,671.006,044.383,626.63
Cash Retained (M)36,616.0036,616.0036,616.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,671.00-6,044.38-3,626.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)26,945.0030,571.6332,989.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)361.02361.02361.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share74.6484.6891.38
LTM Dividend per Share32.5232.5232.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share74.6484.6891.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend107.15117.20123.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11,137.64$24,963.40$26,637.68
Upside / Downside818.57%1,958.84%2,096.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48,355.0051,498.0854,845.4558,410.4062,207.0866,250.5468,238.06
Payout Ratio24.28%37.42%50.57%63.71%76.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,739.0019,271.2827,733.1637,213.6747,809.4659,625.4963,120.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)17,922.6718,092.5518,262.44
Year 2 PV (M)23,987.4224,444.3124,905.52
Year 3 PV (M)29,934.9630,794.2931,669.90
Year 4 PV (M)35,766.9837,142.4738,557.27
Year 5 PV (M)41,485.1243,488.8745,569.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,249,406.381,309,753.181,372,409.59
Equity Value (M)1,398,503.531,463,715.681,531,374.02
Shares Outstanding (M)361.02361.02361.02
Fair Value$3,873.81$4,054.45$4,241.86
Upside / Downside219.49%234.39%249.84%

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