Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (9072.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,024.92 - $1,510.91$1,257.97
Multi-Stage$1,075.20 - $1,174.32$1,123.85
Blended Fair Value$1,190.91
Current Price$3,412.00
Upside-65.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.24%7.25%49.5746.9339.0332.4333.8534.9432.6830.8727.4628.92
YoY Growth--5.63%20.23%20.35%-4.18%-3.13%6.92%5.85%12.44%-5.04%17.40%
Dividend Yield--1.54%2.64%2.72%3.02%2.80%3.26%2.55%2.12%2.12%3.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,214.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,364.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,850.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,442.802,151.751,291.05
Cash Retained (M)13,850.0013,850.0013,850.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,442.80-2,151.75-1,291.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,407.2011,698.2512,558.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.88137.88137.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share75.4884.8491.09
LTM Dividend per Share24.4024.4024.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share75.4884.8491.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend99.88109.24115.48
WACC / Discount Rate12.42%12.42%12.42%
Growth Rate2.44%3.44%4.44%
Fair Value$1,024.92$1,257.97$1,510.91
Upside / Downside-69.96%-63.13%-55.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,214.0017,805.8118,417.9719,051.1819,706.1520,383.6420,995.15
Payout Ratio19.54%33.63%47.73%61.82%75.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,364.005,988.778,790.0411,776.8514,958.6318,345.2819,420.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.42%12.42%12.42%
Growth Rate2.44%3.44%4.44%
Year 1 PV (M)5,275.625,327.125,378.62
Year 2 PV (M)6,821.226,955.057,090.18
Year 3 PV (M)8,050.748,288.828,531.55
Year 4 PV (M)9,008.129,365.069,732.50
Year 5 PV (M)9,732.0110,216.3910,719.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)109,362.07114,805.28120,463.09
Equity Value (M)148,249.78154,957.71161,915.81
Shares Outstanding (M)137.88137.88137.88
Fair Value$1,075.20$1,123.85$1,174.32
Upside / Downside-68.49%-67.06%-65.58%

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