Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nishi-Nippon Railroad Co., Ltd. (9031.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,332.36 - $9,884.47$7,200.07
Multi-Stage$9,325.79 - $10,264.40$9,786.01
Blended Fair Value$8,493.04
Current Price$2,337.50
Upside263.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.61%2.85%40.7438.3533.2725.6130.7435.8135.8435.8436.9038.56
YoY Growth--6.22%15.28%29.92%-16.70%-14.16%-0.07%0.00%-2.88%-4.30%25.33%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.49%1.36%0.88%1.14%1.22%1.53%1.19%1.46%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,082.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)891.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)27,190.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,616.403,510.252,106.15
Cash Retained (M)27,190.5027,190.5027,190.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,616.40-3,510.25-2,106.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)21,574.1023,680.2525,084.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77.1377.1377.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share279.71307.02325.22
LTM Dividend per Share11.5611.5611.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share279.71307.02325.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend291.27318.57336.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.13%6.13%6.13%
Growth Rate0.63%1.63%2.63%
Fair Value$5,332.36$7,200.07$9,884.47
Upside / Downside128.12%208.02%322.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,082.0028,540.6629,006.8229,480.5929,962.0930,451.4631,365.01
Payout Ratio3.17%20.54%37.90%55.27%72.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)891.505,862.1710,994.9716,293.8821,762.9427,406.3229,012.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.13%6.13%6.13%
Growth Rate0.63%1.63%2.63%
Year 1 PV (M)5,469.225,523.565,577.91
Year 2 PV (M)9,570.359,761.499,954.53
Year 3 PV (M)13,231.9813,630.3814,036.69
Year 4 PV (M)16,488.6417,153.8717,839.03
Year 5 PV (M)19,372.4620,354.3121,375.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)655,168.57688,374.25722,912.85
Equity Value (M)719,301.22754,797.87791,696.58
Shares Outstanding (M)77.1377.1377.13
Fair Value$9,325.79$9,786.01$10,264.40
Upside / Downside298.96%318.65%339.12%

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