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Definitive Analysis

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Takashimaya Company, Limited (8233.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19,381.22 - $22,834.91$21,399.40
Multi-Stage$200,400.00 - $220,106.22$210,068.19
Blended Fair Value$115,733.79
Current Price$1,331.00
Upside8,595.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.35%7.36%18.7113.4911.0411.0411.0411.4411.5711.5711.5710.68
YoY Growth--38.72%22.19%0.00%0.00%-3.47%-1.14%0.00%0.00%8.37%16.08%
Dividend Yield--1.62%1.04%1.18%1.72%1.77%2.18%2.01%1.27%1.12%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41,666.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,571.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,095.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,333.205,208.253,124.95
Cash Retained (M)34,095.0034,095.0034,095.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,333.20-5,208.25-3,124.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)25,761.8028,886.7530,970.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)362.42362.42362.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share71.0879.7185.45
LTM Dividend per Share20.8920.8920.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share71.0879.7185.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend91.97100.60106.35
WACC / Discount Rate-40.89%-40.89%-40.89%
Growth Rate5.36%6.36%7.36%
Fair Value$19,381.22$21,399.40$22,834.91
Upside / Downside1,356.14%1,507.77%1,615.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41,666.0044,316.9647,136.5950,135.6153,325.4456,718.2358,419.77
Payout Ratio18.17%32.54%46.90%61.27%75.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,571.0014,419.2122,108.2030,717.2240,332.2451,046.4054,038.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-40.89%-40.89%-40.89%
Growth Rate5.36%6.36%7.36%
Year 1 PV (M)24,162.7624,392.0924,621.42
Year 2 PV (M)62,081.6763,265.7064,460.92
Year 3 PV (M)144,542.99148,697.77152,931.41
Year 4 PV (M)318,033.17330,280.02342,877.22
Year 5 PV (M)674,512.88707,135.45741,008.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)71,404,682.5674,858,144.7578,443,953.27
Equity Value (M)72,628,016.0276,131,915.7879,769,852.46
Shares Outstanding (M)362.42362.42362.42
Fair Value$200,400.00$210,068.19$220,106.22
Upside / Downside14,956.35%15,682.73%16,436.91%

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