Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ASIRO Inc. (7378.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Personal Products & ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,095.84 - $1,689.04$1,371.65
Multi-Stage$2,400.26 - $2,645.05$2,520.24
Blended Fair Value$1,945.94
Current Price$1,734.00
Upside12.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%13.4413.030.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--3.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.79%1.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)869.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)175.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)693.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)173.91108.6965.21
Cash Retained (M)693.79693.79693.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-173.91-108.69-65.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)519.88585.10628.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.297.297.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share71.2780.2186.17
LTM Dividend per Share24.0924.0924.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share71.2780.2186.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend95.36104.30110.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,095.84$1,371.65$1,689.04
Upside / Downside-36.80%-20.90%-2.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)869.53860.83852.22843.70835.26826.91851.72
Payout Ratio20.21%34.17%48.13%62.08%76.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)175.74294.13410.14523.81635.15744.22787.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)273.32276.11278.90
Year 2 PV (M)354.15361.42368.76
Year 3 PV (M)420.29433.29446.55
Year 4 PV (M)473.57493.20513.43
Year 5 PV (M)515.63542.48570.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,472.1716,277.8417,116.73
Equity Value (M)17,509.1418,384.3419,294.80
Shares Outstanding (M)7.297.297.29
Fair Value$2,400.26$2,520.24$2,645.05
Upside / Downside38.42%45.34%52.54%

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