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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Seiki Co., Ltd. (7287.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,567.81 - $9,332.17$5,432.38
Multi-Stage$4,040.89 - $4,432.53$4,233.03
Blended Fair Value$4,832.70
Current Price$1,776.00
Upside172.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.78%4.90%51.2041.8341.8141.7739.6944.6544.6234.7234.7234.70
YoY Growth--22.41%0.04%0.08%5.24%-11.10%0.08%28.49%0.00%0.05%9.33%
Dividend Yield--3.59%2.82%4.27%4.84%3.35%3.56%2.33%1.66%1.54%2.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,107.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,907.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,200.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,821.401,138.38683.03
Cash Retained (M)6,200.006,200.006,200.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,821.40-1,138.38-683.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,378.605,061.635,516.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)57.7257.7257.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share75.8787.7095.59
LTM Dividend per Share50.3750.3750.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share75.8787.7095.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend126.23138.07145.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.90%3.90%4.90%
Fair Value$3,567.81$5,432.38$9,332.17
Upside / Downside100.89%205.88%425.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,107.009,461.909,830.6410,213.7410,611.7711,025.3211,356.08
Payout Ratio31.92%43.54%55.15%66.77%78.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,907.004,119.375,421.826,819.538,317.949,922.7810,504.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.90%3.90%4.90%
Year 1 PV (M)3,829.373,866.593,903.80
Year 2 PV (M)4,685.314,776.824,869.22
Year 3 PV (M)5,478.285,639.565,803.97
Year 4 PV (M)6,211.586,456.606,708.78
Year 5 PV (M)6,888.377,229.667,584.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)206,129.11216,341.98226,955.70
Equity Value (M)233,222.03244,311.21255,825.83
Shares Outstanding (M)57.7257.7257.72
Fair Value$4,040.89$4,233.03$4,432.53
Upside / Downside127.53%138.35%149.58%

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