Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gudeng Equipment Co., Ltd. (6953.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.66 - $93.54$77.34
Multi-Stage$125.27 - $137.44$131.24
Blended Fair Value$104.29
Current Price$169.00
Upside-38.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%4.071.490.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--172.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.09%0.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)230.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)180.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.0228.7617.26
Cash Retained (M)50.0350.0350.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.02-28.76-17.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.0121.2632.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.1930.1930.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.701.09
LTM Dividend per Share5.975.975.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.701.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.106.677.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$62.66$77.34$93.54
Upside / Downside-62.93%-54.24%-44.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)230.12227.82225.54223.28221.05218.84225.40
Payout Ratio78.26%80.61%82.96%85.30%87.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)180.09183.64187.10190.47193.75196.96208.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)169.04170.76172.49
Year 2 PV (M)158.53161.78165.07
Year 3 PV (M)148.56153.15157.84
Year 4 PV (M)139.11144.87150.82
Year 5 PV (M)130.17136.94144.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,035.953,194.043,358.65
Equity Value (M)3,781.363,961.564,148.87
Shares Outstanding (M)30.1930.1930.19
Fair Value$125.27$131.24$137.44
Upside / Downside-25.88%-22.35%-18.67%

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